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Are you thinking about getting married? How can you know if your marriage will last? You could evaluate a long list of compatibility criteria—or you could just consider how old you are. Your age when you marry is surprisingly revealing of divorce vulnerability, although not in the way experts previously thought.
There’s a long-standing notion that people who marry later in life tend to have more stable marriages. Getting married as a teenager, according to this thinking, is the riskiest, and the most predictive of divorce. This makes sense, right? If you’re young, you’re probably financially strapped and uncertain about your professional future; you likely have age-related pressures from family, friends, work, and school. Heck, your brain isn’t even fully developed yet. On top of all this, many teenagers are inexperienced when comes to navigating relationship challenges. It’s just tough to get married when you’re very young.
Statistical trends do suggest that it's best to wait a few years: Divorce is 50% less likely for someone who is 25 years old when they wed, as compared to someone who gets married at age 20. Until now, this dramatic decrease has been seen as the beginning of a downward slope that keeps on decreasing, though at a somewhat slower rate, through our 20s, 30s, and beyond.
The idea that getting married older is less predictive of divorce also makes sense: It’s likely that couples are more financially stable, have a clearer sense of self and goals, and have spent enough time dating to know what they really want.
What’s happening now?
Sociological researcher Nicholas Wolfinger has discovered a startling new reality: His recent analysis of data from 2006 to 2010 in the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) reveals that getting married after your mid-30s is actually riskier than getting married in your late 20s—and that the best age at which to get married appears to be between 28 and 32. Before that age range, divorce rates are still decreasing; after that window, they begin to climb again.
Slate magazine calls these new findings the “Goldilocks theory of marriage.” Get married too early? Divorce rates are higher. Get married too late? You’re in a similar (if somewhat less dramatic) boat.
Why is this? Wolfinger can’t say for sure. But, as far as the pattern goes, he asserts that “its existence is beyond question.” When he replicated the finding using data from the 2011-2014 NSFG, the same trend emerged. After five years of marriage, couples who married as teens have a 38% risk of divorce; those in their early twenties are also highly vulnerable (27%), but then there’s a strong decline for couples who marry between ages of 25 and 29 (14%) and ages 30 to 34 (10%). Once again, though, couples who got married in their mid-30s saw an uptick in their divorce risk: Couples who wed for the first time at 35 or over had a 17% risk of divorce during their first five years of marriage.
Wolfinger controlled for a variety of demographic variables and still found evidence that in today’s world, marrying before your mid-20s or after your mid-30s is associated with higher rates of divorce. He speculates that self-selection is part of the explanation for this new reality: People who wait until their mid-30s to marry today generally aren't marrying for financial stability—which is usually established by early 30s—and might simply be less apt to succeed in marriage. And perhaps options like cohabitation without marriage are reducing the pool of marriage-eligible people over 30 who would succeed in committed relationships. Wolfinger's speculation is not without exception but may reflect a trend among individuals whose first marriages occur after 35.
FAQs
Statistically, an individual who marries at age 25 is more than 50 percent less likely to get divorced than is someone who marries at age 20. “The late 20s and early 30s are when people's professional careers are coming into play and finances can be worked out,” says Kemie King of the King Lindsey, P.A.
At what age do marriages last the longest? ›
Late 20s to Early 30s: Many studies suggest that individuals who marry in their late 20s to early 30s may have a higher likelihood of marital success.
What is the perfect age to get married? ›
Dr. Fisher believes that marriages that take place when the couple is in their late 20s to mid 30s are most successful. "By the time we are getting to the late 20s, we have a clear sense of who we are and what we want out of life," he explains.
What year is the hardest for married couples? ›
Divorce lawyers, psychologists, and researchers have slotted years of marriage into periods and have rated them based on their risk of divorce:
- Years 1–2: Very Risky.
- Years 3–4: Mild Risk.
- Years 5–8: Very Risky.
- Years 9–15: Low Risk.
- Years 15 and over: Low to Mild Risk.
44. 60 percent of couples married between the age of 20 -25 will end in divorce. 45. Those who wait to marry until they are over 25 years old are 24 percent less likely to get divorced.
What age is late for marriage? ›
Whether you're 40, 60, 102, or somewhere in between, it's never too late to get married. "Ultimately, the choice to marry at any age should hinge on personal readiness, compatibility with one's partner and individual circ*mstances," says Davtyan.
What marriage age has the highest divorce rate? ›
The average age for a couple entering their first divorce is 30 years old. And 60% of divorces involve spouses between the ages of 25 and 39. Women are more likely to file for divorce than men.
What day is it unlucky to marry? ›
But Greek folklore says Tuesdays are unlucky because Constantinople fell on a Tuesday. And the old English rhyme in Every Woman's Encyclopaedia says to marry on 'Monday for wealth, Tuesday for health, Wednesday the best day of all, Thursday for losses, Friday for crosses, and Saturday no luck at all.'"
What age do men want to settle down? ›
Key points. About 80 percent of married men surveyed agreed with the statement that they decided to get married because it was the right time to settle down. The median age for men to first marry is 27. Thirty-five percent of married men disagreed that they got married primarily because they were ready to have children ...
Which age is best for love? ›
Most experts agree that the right age to start dating is around 16.
After settling down, restlessness and breakaways are common.
According to the census bureau, the average length of first marriages for divorcing couples is 8.2 years, reflecting the infamous "seven-year-itch." But why seven instead of, say, 11 or 15? Good question.
What is the best and worst age for couples to get married? ›
Statistically, an individual who marries at age 25 is more than 50 percent less likely to get divorced than is someone who marries at age 20. “The late 20s and early 30s are when people's professional careers are coming into play and finances can be worked out,” says Kemie King of the King Lindsey, P.A.
What is the #1 cause of divorce? ›
Lack of Commitment Is the Most Common Reason for Divorce
In fact, 75% of individuals and couples cited lack of commitment as the reason for their divorce. This was the most common cause of a marriage ending, exceeding even infidelity.
What religion has the highest divorce rate? ›
1. Protestant Christians 51% According to the Pew Study, 74% of Christians identified themselves as Protestant (non-Catholic Christians), and out of a sample of 4,752 individuals, the divorce rate for Protestants was approximately 51%.
What age is worst for divorce? ›
The school-aged years are probably the worst age for divorce for children; the potential for emotional trauma from divorce is highest at age 11. Children in this age group tend to be more self-centered, meaning the breakdown of the family unit can feel like a personal attack.
What year of marriage is divorce most likely? ›
Most divorces happen between year three and year seven of marriage. Just 4% of couples divorce after 10 years of marriage.
At what point do most marriages end? ›
The average length of a first marriage that ends in divorce is roughly eight years—7.8 years for men, 7.9 for women. Moving into second marriages that end in divorce, the timeline shortens somewhat. In these cases, the median length for men is 7.3 years, while for women it drops to 6.8 years.
Is 25 too early to get married? ›
At least wait until your brain stops growing
“There is a certain maturity level that a person reaches where they will likely succeed in their marriage, and it usually happens after age 25,” says Alicia Taverner, owner of Rancho Counseling.
What percent of marriages make it to 50 years? ›
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, after 15 years almost half of all marriages have ended, most through divorce. Fewer than 5 percent of all marriages last 50 years. A much smaller number survive 60 years. What are the keys to a long- lasting marriage?
